Quick answer
ABC estimates construction must attract 349,000 net new workers in 2026 to meet demand.
ABC says the figure comes from its proprietary model. BLS, by contrast, explicitly says its long-term employment projections do not forecast labor shortages or surpluses. The two sources answer different questions.
Three numbers that people often mix together
349,000
ABC workforce need
A private estimate of net new workers construction needs to attract in 2026. It is not a real-time vacancy count.
Growth %
BLS employment change
The projected percentage change in employment from 2025 to 2035.
Openings
BLS annual openings
Average annual openings include both growth and replacement needs such as workers leaving an occupation.
Source and methodology note
Workforce-gap figures from trade associations are estimates or survey findings, not counts of every vacant trade job nationwide. TrainingForFuture distinguishes those estimates from BLS wage, growth and annual-opening projections.
What official BLS data says about major trades
These are BLS national projections for 2025 to 2035 (registry verified September 13, 2026). They do not mean every city, employer or specialty has the same hiring conditions.
Does a workforce shortage guarantee higher pay?
No. Tight labor conditions can strengthen worker bargaining power, but pay still depends on occupation, region, licensing, union coverage, industry, overtime, experience and employer. The safest approach is to use current state or metro wage data, not a national shortage headline, to estimate local earning potential.
Compare Local OpportunitiesWhat the shortage story does mean for a career changer
- More openings can improve access to apprenticeships, helper roles and training pipelines, but availability remains local.
- Replacement demand matters. A trade can have many annual openings even when its employment-growth percentage is modest.
- Licensing still matters. A labor need does not let an applicant skip state, local or federal requirements.
- Fit still matters. Physical demands, schedule, travel, safety conditions and long training periods can outweigh a strong market.
Use the shortage story as a signal, not a decision.
Compare the national labor-market signal with your state, licensing path, pay goals and personal fit before choosing a trade.
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