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BLS VERIFIED
Elevator Tech$110k median▲ +6% 2025–35Faster than averageLineworker$95k median▲ +10% 2025–35Much faster than averageBoilermaker$76k median▼ -2% 2025–35DecliningInspector$75k median● 0% 2025–35Little or no changeIndustrial Maintenance$64k median▲ +14% 2025–35Much faster than averageWind Tech$64k median▲ +30% 2025–35Much faster than averagePlumber$64k median▲ +7% 2025–35Much faster than averageElectrician$63k median▲ +9% 2025–35Much faster than averageSheet Metal$62k median● +3% 2025–35About as fast as averageHVAC Tech$61k median▲ +11% 2025–35Much faster than averageCarpenter$61k median▲ +4% 2025–35About as fast as averageCDL Driver$59k median▲ +4% 2025–35About as fast as averageRoofer$55k median▲ +5% 2025–35Faster than averageWelder$54k median● +2% 2025–35Slower than averageSolar Installer$53k median▲ +37% 2025–35Much faster than averageElevator Tech$110k median▲ +6% 2025–35Faster than averageLineworker$95k median▲ +10% 2025–35Much faster than averageBoilermaker$76k median▼ -2% 2025–35DecliningInspector$75k median● 0% 2025–35Little or no changeIndustrial Maintenance$64k median▲ +14% 2025–35Much faster than averageWind Tech$64k median▲ +30% 2025–35Much faster than averagePlumber$64k median▲ +7% 2025–35Much faster than averageElectrician$63k median▲ +9% 2025–35Much faster than averageSheet Metal$62k median● +3% 2025–35About as fast as averageHVAC Tech$61k median▲ +11% 2025–35Much faster than averageCarpenter$61k median▲ +4% 2025–35About as fast as averageCDL Driver$59k median▲ +4% 2025–35About as fast as averageRoofer$55k median▲ +5% 2025–35Faster than averageWelder$54k median● +2% 2025–35Slower than averageSolar Installer$53k median▲ +37% 2025–35Much faster than average
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Industry report · Methodology clarified September 16, 2026

Skilled Trades Shortage 2026: What the 349,000-Worker Estimate Actually Means

The widely quoted 349,000 figure is a private construction-workforce estimate from ABC. It is not a BLS count of currently vacant skilled-trade jobs, and it should not be presented that way.

Quick answer

ABC estimates construction must attract 349,000 net new workers in 2026 to meet demand.

ABC says the figure comes from its proprietary model. BLS, by contrast, explicitly says its long-term employment projections do not forecast labor shortages or surpluses. The two sources answer different questions.

Three numbers that people often mix together

349,000

ABC workforce need

A private estimate of net new workers construction needs to attract in 2026. It is not a real-time vacancy count.

Growth %

BLS employment change

The projected percentage change in employment from 2025 to 2035.

Openings

BLS annual openings

Average annual openings include both growth and replacement needs such as workers leaving an occupation.

What official BLS data says about major trades

Electricians9% growth72,700/yrExplore →
Plumbers / pipefitters / steamfitters7% growth42,000/yrExplore →
HVAC technicians11% growth40,600/yrExplore →
Carpenters4% growth62,800/yrExplore →

These are 2025–35 national projections. They do not mean every city, employer or specialty has the same hiring conditions.

Does a workforce shortage guarantee higher pay?

No. Tight labor conditions can strengthen worker bargaining power, but pay still depends on occupation, region, licensing, union coverage, industry, overtime, experience and employer. The safest approach is to use current state or metro wage data—not a national shortage headline—to estimate local earning potential.

Compare Local Opportunities

What the shortage story does mean for a career changer

  • More openings can improve access to apprenticeships, helper roles and training pipelines, but availability remains local.
  • Replacement demand matters. A trade can have many annual openings even when its employment-growth percentage is modest.
  • Licensing still matters. A labor need does not let an applicant skip state, local or federal requirements.
  • Fit still matters. Physical demands, schedule, travel, safety conditions and long training periods can outweigh a strong market.

Use the shortage story as a signal—not a decision.

Compare the national labor-market signal with your state, licensing path, pay goals and personal fit before choosing a trade.

Not sure which path fits you?

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Our sister platform maps your background to your best career options — including trades. Free, takes 3 minutes.

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Build unknown, 2026-09-18 15:42 UTC